Dear Rusty: I’ve been reading a lot lately about speculation on what next year’s benefit increase will be, and it seems like most of the experts are suggesting a range of 2.5% to 3%. My neighbor says don’t worry about it, because there will always be some level of increase come January. It’s guaranteed, right? Signed: Retired But Questioning Dear Retired: You’ve brought up a common belief about the annual Social Security COLA, one that we hear often. Let’s start with some background. Each year’s COLA results from comparing the third quarter average Consumer Price Index (CPI-W) each year to the same average from the preceding year. The result of dividing the current year’s average by the previous year’s average produces the COLA for the following year. For 2024’s adjustment, the 2023 third-quarter average was 301.2 and the comparable figure for 2022 was 291.9, producing the 3.2% benefit addition.